Political risk analysis

The success behind long-term implementation is closely linked to the ability to adapt to the relevant political and cultural context, and thus to perfectly understand and accurately predict its possible trends.

To respond to our clients’ needs, our “political risk” team sees through, on an ad-hoc basis or over time, the following tasks: interpreting the main articles and studies on the given country, exchanging of views with our correspondents, interviewing numerous experts and sources, analysing the information and expert opinions obtained in order to identify key issues and establish the main possible scenarios.

The topics addressed are:

• International and regional framework;
• Security context: political stability, crisis-provoking factors;
• Landscape of players and power dynamics: hierarchies, allegiances, rivalries and opposition groups;
• Political and budgetary orientations, laws and regulations;
• Risks and potential challenges: corruption, unfair competition, predatory behaviour, political settling of scores etc.

The distinctiveness of our approach lies in the combination of an academic culture and an intelligence-based approach, coupled with knowledge of the main risks businesses are exposed to.

Support for responses to international tenders

Large international markets are subject to competitive tenders, the outcome of which represents a major challenge for competing companies who have a lot at stake over one single decision, in a context which is not always transparent. It is no longer enough to be the most competitive; rather it is equally vital to be the most knowledgeable and influential, all while protecting oneself against potential foul play.

To facilitate the success of our clients, we take advantage of public information, mobilise our correspondents and investigate on the ground to provide them insights on the following issues:

• Decision-making process: key individuals, decision-making and influential skills, expectations, level of transparency and ethical behaviour;
• Competitive environment: strengths and weaknesses, possible unfair practices;
• Support and backing: strengths and weaknesses of partners, agents and consultants who may facilitate success.

Compliance reviews/due diligence

In a merger or acquisition, the strengths of the target company are fairly clear, unlike its possible weaknesses. Yet a partnership which is leading to disputes, or an acquisition which is failing for lack of having identified its weak points, may have disastrous consequences.

In order to help our clients to make the right decisions and to take the necessary precautions to effectively carry out a merger, we mobilise our correspondents and investigate on the ground regarding the following issues:

• Precise administrative identity;
• Historical background;
• Profile and reputation of shareholders and managers;
• Competitive, political and cultural environment;
• Compliance with the law, to international sanctions, to ethical standards and to our clients’ expectations.

The depth of investigation depends on the issues involved and the degree of risk.